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Read the full WA risk management modelling & discussion on alternative COVID-19 herd immunity & elimination strategies report here.

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The paper draws the following conclusions:

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• The herd immunity strategy is likely to result in 5 300 to 25 300 deaths in Western Australia that would largely be avoided under an elimination strategy.

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• The herd immunity strategy is likely to require 0.9 to 4.4 years of draconian public health measures that would largely be avoided under an elimination strategy.

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• Evidenced based on immune response to other coronaviruses indicates natural COVID-19 immunity will be short-term making it likely the natural herd immunity strategy will be unsuccessful long-term.

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• There was just 1 new case of COVID-19 spread from an unknown source in Western Australia over the week 12th to 19th April 2020. As of 19/04/2019 there had been a total of 14 case of unknown source or just 2.6% of cases. This provides anecdotal evidence that there are low rates of undetected asymptomatic COVID-19 infections in Western Australia, meaning the higher number of deaths (25 300), and the longer period of draconian health measures (4.4 years) are likely. Conversely it means there is currently a high chance of the elimination strategy being successful.

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• There are serious COVID-19 health risks other than death, such as long-term damage to the lungs and other organs of many who survive the disease.

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• The herd immunity strategy has significant health, economic, social, political, and ethical risks that are greatly reduced under the elimination strategy.

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• The requirement to deliberately increase COVID-19 infections rates and deaths and greatly extend draconian health measures under the herd immunity strategy has not been clearly communicated to the Western Australian public and is likely to cause confusion if it is. An elimination strategy will allow the communication of a clear public health message to the Western Australian public.

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• There are currently many unknowns regarding COVID-19 (asymptomatic infection rates, immune response, effective treatments, ability to create a vaccine). The elimination strategy will allow time for the development of a greater understanding of COVID-19 leading to better informed strategies and likely better outcomes in the future. Continuing the herd immunity strategy at the current time negates these likely future improvements.

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• The Government of Western Australia should continue to build surge healthcare system capacity, just in case.

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• The Government of Western Australia should immediately adopt an elimination strategy and campaign for the same across the whole of Australia. 

 

Read the full WA risk management modelling & discussion on alternative COVID-19 herd immunity & elimination strategies report here.

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12/05/2020

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The above describes Western Australian risk management modelling & discussion on alternative COVID-19 herd immunity & elimination strategies. Australia now seems to be settling on either the controlled adaptation or elimination strategy as summarised by Group of 8  experts here . 

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My concern with controlled adaptation is that although if we’re lucky it will lead to elimination, there is also a high chance it will lead back to herd immunity with all the associated deaths, social and economic costs. I don’t see that controlled adaptation allows lower border controls than elimination unless it’s as a pathway back to herd immunity. In fact both elimination and controlled adaptation strategies allow for travel into Australia (necessary for international students) with suitable quarantine processes. Tertiary education is a major Australian export. 

I think it’s worth discussing whether the controlled adaptation strategy really does lead to lower border controls than elimination, other than through herd immunity. And if it doesn't then the discussion should revert back to elimination vs herd immunity.